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Three Round-of-32 ties landed in the small hours of Thursday NZST, and one of them re-wrote the record book at 124 minutes and 44 seconds. Belgium beat Senegal 3–2 after extra time on a penalty scored at 120+5′ — the latest goal ever recorded in a men’s World Cup — after they had been two goals down with five minutes of normal time left. England and the USA also advanced. If you had all three favourites in a coupon you got there, but the way you got there is the story, and it is the difference between a punter who reads the aftermath correctly and one who reloads the same ticket into the wrong Round-of-16 price.
- Belgium 3–2 Senegal (a.e.t.): Diarra 25′, Sarr 51′ for Senegal; Lukaku 86′, Tielemans 89′ and a 120+5′ penalty for Belgium — the latest goal in men’s World Cup history.
- England 2–1 DR Congo: Cipenga 7′ for DR Congo; Kane 75′ and 86′ — his brace takes him to 13 World Cup goals, one clear of Pelé.
- USA 2–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina with ten men: Balogun 45′ then a 64′ red card; Tillman 81′. Balogun is banned for the Round of 16.
- Eliminated: DR Congo, Senegal, Bosnia & Herzegovina. Advanced: England (vs Mexico, 5 Jul), Belgium (vs USA, 6 Jul), USA (vs Belgium, 6 Jul).
- Inside read: the “to advance” prices treated these as done deals; two of the three went the distance or the wire, and that matters for how you price the next round.
Belgium 3–2 Senegal: The Latest Goal There Has Ever Been
Two-nil down after Ismaïla Sarr’s 51st-minute strike, five minutes of normal time remaining, Belgium looked out. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back on 86′, Youri Tielemans levelled on 89′, and then — after the longest VAR review of the tournament — Tielemans buried a penalty at 120 minutes and five seconds. The official clock read 124:44. No goal in the history of the men’s World Cup has ever been scored later.
It was also deeply contested. The penalty split the pundits down the middle, and I’ll deal with that argument in full in my piece on the Tielemans decision and what it does to Belgium’s price. For the recap ledger, what matters is this: Belgium advanced, but they advanced as a side that needed 125 minutes and a disputed spot-kick to see off a Senegal team that has now gone home. That is not the profile of a 36.00 outright shot suddenly worth backing short.
England 2–1 DR Congo: Kane Passes Pelé, Just
England were behind inside seven minutes to Cipenga’s early goal and needed until the 75th for Harry Kane to level, then the 86th for him to win it. The brace carried a milestone tucked inside it: Kane is now on 13 World Cup goals across his career, one clear of Pelé (12) on the all-time list. His overall England record — passing Gary Lineker — was already set earlier in the tournament against Panama on 27 June, so file the Pelé line as the new one from Thursday.
For punters the takeaway is narrower. England laboured against a side that has now been eliminated, and their reward is Mexico on 5 July — a host nation, a partisan crowd, and an outright price (8.00–9.50 depending on your book) that has not moved on this performance. If you were tempted by England-to-win-the-tournament off the back of "Kane’s on fire," reread the 90 minutes, not the highlight reel.
USA 2–0 Bosnia: A Ten-Man Job With a Sting in the Tail
The USA did the cleanest job of the three on paper — 2–0, Balogun on the stroke of half-time, Tillman’s free-kick on 81′ — but they did the back half of it with ten men. Folarin Balogun was sent off on 64 minutes after a VAR review, and his automatic ban rules him out of the Round-of-16 tie with Belgium on 6 July. Head coach Mauricio Pochettino was unequivocal afterwards: "For me, never is it a red card. Never was there intention to step on the player."
That suspension is the single most important line to come out of the USA’s night. A team that has just lost its opening goalscorer for the next round is not a team whose advance price you take at face value.
What the Advance-Market Prices Missed
The clean 24-hour 1X2 line moves on these individual ties were never publicly clean — the international boards were pricing "to advance" markets that blended into the outright. But directionally, the market treated all three as formalities, and two of them were anything but. The lesson for the Round of 16 is a familiar one on this column: a favourite that wins ugly and a favourite that wins impressively are priced almost identically the next morning, and the edge lives in telling them apart.
For where I think the smart money has actually moved across the whole outright board — France, the dark horses shortening, and the drifters — see my read on the market moves into the knockouts. For the wider odds picture, the evergreen Odds Breakdown and value bets pages hold the baseline.
My Verdict
Thursday was a favourites’ night that flattered nobody. Belgium survived on the latest goal in the tournament’s history and a penalty half the studio disowned. England needed 86 minutes to beat a team that’s now out. The USA won well but lost their scorer for the next round. If you cashed the three, good — now put the coupon down and price the Round of 16 on what you actually watched, not on the fact that the favourites’ names all came up. The next round’s value is in the complications, and there are three of them sitting right here.
For today’s live card and where I think the value hides across Spain–Austria, Portugal–Croatia and Switzerland–Algeria, my 2 July picks are here. And for the full Round-of-16 shape as it opens on 4 July, the preview is here.
18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Results and odds context as of ~8:30am ET 2 July 2026 (early Friday 3 July NZST); lines moving. TAB NZ is the only lawful platform for NZ residents — international boards quoted for reference only.
