Available in USLoading...
At 120 minutes and five seconds — an official clock reading of 124:44 — Youri Tielemans stepped up and scored the latest goal in the history of the men’s World Cup. It completed a Belgium comeback from 2–0 down with five minutes of normal time to play, the latest a side has trailed by two in normal time and still avoided defeat at a World Cup. And it arrived after the longest VAR review of the tournament, from a penalty that half the broadcast studio refused to accept. Here is what actually happened, what the pundits said on air, and — the part this column exists for — what a win like this should do to the price you’re offered on Belgium next.
- Belgium 3–2 Senegal (a.e.t.): 2–0 down after Sarr’s 51′ goal, Belgium levelled through Lukaku (86′) and Tielemans (89′), then won it on Tielemans’ 120+5′ penalty.
- At 124:44, it is the latest goal ever scored in a men’s World Cup, awarded after the tournament’s longest VAR review.
- The pundits split: Gary Neville and Roy Keane both questioned the penalty live on air.
- Belgium’s reward is a Round-of-16 tie with the USA on 6 July — a USA side missing the suspended Balogun.
- Inside read: a 125-minute win on a disputed penalty is not a reason to back Belgium’s 36.00 outright shorter. It is a reason to read their next price carefully.
What Happened: 2–0 Down, Then 124:44
Senegal led 2–0. Habib Diarra had struck on 25 minutes and Ismaïla Sarr doubled it on 51′. With five minutes of normal time left, Belgium were going home. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back on 86′, Tielemans levelled on 89′, and the tie went to extra time level at 2–2. Then, deep into the second period of extra time, the referee was sent to the monitor for what became the longest VAR review of the tournament. He gave the penalty. Tielemans scored it. The clock read 124:44 — no goal in men’s World Cup history has ever been later.
The Row: What Neville and Keane Said
The decision divided the studio in real time. Gary Neville was blunt: "I genuinely don’t believe that’s a penalty." He returned to it a beat later, framing it against how the tournament had been officiated: "I don’t think it’s a penalty on the bar that’s been set in this tournament."
Roy Keane was no warmer. "It’s very, very harsh," he said, before putting his finger on the part that unsettled him most — the hesitation: "You want conviction in the referee’s decision, and he was certainly hesitating a long time."
The Insider Read: Beware the "Controversy Tax"
Here is where a punter has to be honest with themselves. A last-gasp, come-from-behind, record-breaking win is emotionally enormous, and emotion is precisely what moves a price the wrong way. Belgium sat at 36.00 on the outright board before this tie. The temptation after a night like Wednesday is to think Belgium have "momentum" and back them shorter into the Round of 16.
I’d resist it, and the reasons are on the tape, not the scoreline. Belgium needed 125 minutes and a penalty two respected pundits called harsh to get past a Senegal side that has now been eliminated. Strip the drama out and you have a team that was outplayed for long stretches, could not break a 2–2 in 30 minutes of extra time from open play, and required a monitor review to win. That is not the performance of a dark horse worth backing short — it is the performance of a team that got away with one.
What It Means for 6 July
Belgium’s reward is the USA in the Round of 16 on 6 July — and there the picture genuinely tilts, but not because of Belgium. The USA are without Folarin Balogun, suspended after his red card against Bosnia, which weakens their attack for the tie. So the honest position is this: Belgium may well advance, but if they do it will be as much about a depleted USA as about anything Belgium showed against Senegal. Price the tie on the Balogun absence, not on the comeback. I lay the whole Round-of-16 board out in the R16 preview, and the night in full sits in my 1 July recap.
My Verdict
Tielemans’ 124:44 penalty will be in the record books forever, and it should be — it is a genuine piece of World Cup history and a comeback for the ages. But history and value are different currencies. A team that needed 125 minutes and a disputed spot-kick to beat an eliminated side is not a team to chase at a shortened price. If anything, this is the clearest "fade the narrative" spot of the knockout stage so far. Enjoy the drama; don’t pay a premium for it.
For the full market picture — France’s book split, the dark horses shortening, the drifters — see my read on the moves into the knockouts. And if you want the underdog story worth actually caring about, the Cabo Verde fairytale is here.
18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Match facts, quotes and odds context as of ~8:30am ET 2 July 2026; outright lines moving. TAB NZ is the only lawful platform for NZ residents — international boards quoted for reference only.
