Available in USLoading...
Eight teams, four ties, three days. The World Cup 2026 quarter-finals run from Thursday 9 July to Saturday 11 July ET — Friday to Sunday morning your time — and the shape of the whole draw is now clear. One half is stacked with France, Spain and Belgium; the other hands Argentina and England a softer-looking route. That imbalance is where a lot of the value hides, because the market prices each tie in isolation while the smart read is about which favourites are getting through and at what cost. Here is my tie-by-tie map, with every kick-off in NZST and the lines that matter.
- QF1 France v Morocco (8:00 AM NZST Fri 10 Jul): France 1.56–1.59 / 3.80–3.95 / Morocco 6.00–6.90.
- QF2 Spain v Belgium (7:00 AM NZST Sat 11 Jul): Spain 1.61 / 4.00 / Belgium 5.25.
- QF3 Norway v England (9:00 AM NZST Sun 12 Jul): Norway 3.80 / 3.50 / England 1.85–1.95.
- QF4 Argentina v Switzerland (1:00 PM NZST Sun 12 Jul): Argentina 1.71–1.80 / 3.50 / Switzerland 5.25.
- Inside read: Spain’s defence is the safest banker; the value plays are Morocco cover and Switzerland’s resilience.
- Odds are international-board decimal figures as of overnight 7–8 July; check TAB NZ for the lawful NZ line.
QF1 — France v Morocco: The Favourite Priced Like a Certainty
France at 1.56–1.59 is fair but joyless — a clear favourite in a knockout against the tournament’s form defence. Morocco are unbeaten (three wins, three draws), and France laboured to a 1–0 over Paraguay last round. The Tchouaméni doubt (adductor/thigh) could soften France’s midfield grip. My read: unders and a small Morocco-or-draw double chance, not the 1.56. Full breakdown in the dedicated France v Morocco preview — including the Argentine referee row that’s dominating the build-up.
QF2 — Spain v Belgium: The Safest Banker on the Board
Spain 1.61 / draw 4.00 / Belgium 5.25. This is the one where the favourite’s price is actually justified. Spain have four clean sheets in a row, just two goals conceded all tournament — the best defence left — and the head-to-head is brutally one-sided: seven meetings, Spain six wins and a draw, Belgium never beaten them, a 16–3 aggregate. Belgium are unbeaten too but drew three of five and lost Amadou Onana to a torn ACL for the tournament.
Inside read: Spain to win and both-teams-to-score "no" is the play that matches the evidence — a low-scoring Spain win. Nico Williams is a doubt (adductor), but Spain’s defensive floor is so high it barely moves the number. If you want one banker leg for a multi this round, this is it — though 1.61 means you need company on the ticket to make it pay.
QF3 — Norway v England: The Number That’s a Warning
Norway 3.80 / draw 3.50 / England 1.85–1.95. England are favourites, but this is the tie I trust least from a favourite’s angle. Norway are unbeaten, beat Brazil 2–1 in the last round with Haaland decisive, and are living their first-ever quarter-final. England, meanwhile, are carrying an injury and suspension list: Jordan Henderson is out (wrist fracture, freak celebration injury), Jarrell Quansah is suspended after a straight red against Mexico, and Reece James is a hip doubt. Haaland has seven goals; Jude Bellingham has four.
My read: England should have enough, but 1.85–1.95 is short for a side this depleted at the back against an in-form Haaland. Gary Neville captured the mood: "I don’t think that’s us getting carried away. We should be favourites to beat Norway but it’s going to be tough." The value is Norway on the double chance or a small stake on the draw, not the England win.
QF4 — Argentina v Switzerland: The Comeback Kings vs the Wall
Argentina 1.71–1.80 / draw 3.50 / Switzerland 5.25. Argentina are riding the 3–2 comeback over Egypt and Messi’s eight goals, but they have conceded in each of their last three. Switzerland are the story nobody wants to draw: unbeaten, into their first quarter-final since 1954, through Colombia on penalties with Kobel making 16 saves across the run. Inside read: Argentina should win, but a Switzerland side this defensively stubborn (only three conceded all tournament) makes the unders and a Switzerland double chance the honest small-stake plays. Watch Gonzalo Montiel for Argentina — one booking from a semi-final suspension.
How the Bracket Feeds the Semis
The structure is fixed and it matters for "to reach the final" markets. The France/Morocco winner meets the Spain/Belgium winner in Dallas on 14 July — the heavyweight half. The Norway/England winner meets the Argentina/Switzerland winner in Atlanta on 15 July — the more open half. If you are pricing a run to the final, Argentina’s side of the draw is objectively kinder, which is part of why they have been backed so hard and why the refereeing chatter around their path has caught fire.
My Verdict
If I had to rank the four favourites by how much I trust their price: Spain first (the defence justifies it), France second (fair but no value), Argentina third (short given they leak goals), England fourth (a warning, not a temptation). The value plays across the round are the underdog-cover and unders markets — Morocco or draw, Switzerland’s resilience, Norway on the double chance. For the outright board behind all this, see the final-eight odds piece; for how the bracket was set, the Round-of-16 recap is here.
18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Odds context as of overnight 7–8 July 2026; some lines are opening prices and team news is still moving — check confirmed line-ups. TAB NZ is the only lawful platform for NZ residents — international boards quoted for reference only.
