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The Round of 16 is done, the bracket has firmed up, and eight teams are still standing with a World Cup to play for. If you have been away from the coupon for a few days, here is the honest map of how we got here — the results that mattered, the two penalty shoot-outs that thinned the field, and the one comeback that has completely reshaped the outright board. No games were played on Wednesday 8 July; it was a scheduled rest day between the last-16 and the quarter-finals, so nothing has moved in the last 24 hours except the prices. That makes today, with France v Morocco kicking off the quarter-finals, the right moment to take stock before the real money goes down.
- The final eight: France, Morocco, Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina, Switzerland.
- All three host nations (USA, Canada, Mexico) are out — and so are five-time winners Brazil.
- Two ties went to penalties: Switzerland beat Colombia 4–3 after 0–0, their first quarter-final since 1954.
- Argentina’s 3–2 comeback over Egypt shortened them dramatically on the outright board (now around 4.90).
- Quarter-final 1: France v Morocco, Thursday 9 July, 8:00 AM NZST Friday 10 July, Foxborough.
- Odds are international-board decimal figures as of ~11:30am ET 8 July; check TAB NZ for the lawful NZ line.
The Two Results That Reshaped the Board
Not every last-16 tie changed the betting picture, but two did. The first was Argentina 3–2 Egypt on 7 July — a genuine comeback in a tie Egypt believe they should have taken further. Lionel Messi scored to move to eight goals for the tournament, the outright market slashed Argentina from a live-longshot number into the 4.90 region, and Egypt’s football federation lodged a formal complaint with FIFA over the refereeing, demanding the official be stood down. More on that row below, because it feeds straight into today’s quarter-final.
The second was Switzerland 0–0 Colombia (4–3 on penalties) in Vancouver on 7 July. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel was the difference in the shoot-out, and the Swiss are into their first World Cup quarter-final since 1954 — a 72-year wait — and the first time they have won two knockout ties at a single World Cup. That is the kind of run the outright board never prices generously enough early, and it is why Switzerland at 34.0 to win the whole thing is the dark-horse line I keep coming back to.
The Rest of the Last Eight
The other six last-16 ties held closer to form, but each carried its own subplot. Marocco beat Canada 3–0, ending the last host nation’s run and confirming the North African side as the tournament’s form team — unbeaten, and now the knowledge that they knocked out a host. France edged Paraguay 1–0, a Kylian Mbappé penalty the only thing separating them from a stubborn, deep-sitting Paraguay block; it was not the free-flowing France of the group stage, and it is worth remembering that today.
Norway beat Brazil 2–1 — a genuine shock, Erling Haaland with the decisive contribution, and the five-time champions gone. Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998 and now, remarkably, their first-ever quarter-final. England beat Mexico 3–2, surviving a partisan crowd and a two-goal Mexican push to book their place, though not without cost (more on their injury and suspension list in the quarter-final preview). And Spain beat Portugal 1–0 while Belgium beat the USA 4–1, setting up the all-European quarter-final in Los Angeles tomorrow.
The Quarter-Final Bracket, in NZST
Here is how the last eight lines up, with kick-offs converted to New Zealand time (ET+16h; no daylight saving here in July):
- France v Morocco — Thu 9 Jul, 16:00 ET → 8:00 AM NZST Fri 10 Jul, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston).
- Spain v Belgium — Fri 10 Jul, 15:00 ET → 7:00 AM NZST Sat 11 Jul, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.
- Norway v England — Sat 11 Jul, 17:00 ET → 9:00 AM NZST Sun 12 Jul, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami.
- Argentina v Switzerland — Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 ET → 1:00 PM NZST Sun 12 Jul, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
The semi-final structure is already fixed: the France/Morocco winner meets the Spain/Belgium winner in Dallas on 14 July, and the Norway/England winner meets the Argentina/Switzerland winner in Atlanta on 15 July. That matters for how you price "to reach the final" markets — one half of the draw is stacked with France, Spain and Belgium; the other gives Argentina a path that has fuelled some of the refereeing chatter.
My Verdict
The Round of 16 did what knockouts do — it thinned the field and reset the prices. Brazil and all three hosts are gone, Argentina have been backed hard off the Egypt comeback, and Switzerland have quietly become the run nobody wants to draw. For today, the number I am watching is Morocco’s, because the market still treats France as a comfortable favourite despite a labour-some 1–0 over Paraguay. The full quarter-final card and my read on each tie is in the quarter-final betting preview, and today’s France v Morocco pick is here.
18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Results and odds context as of ~11:30am ET 8 July 2026. TAB NZ is the only lawful platform for NZ residents — international boards quoted for reference only.
