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In the space of two goals in a bronze match, the whole story flipped. Kylian Mbappé is now the all-time World Cup top scorer — 22 career goals, one clear of Lionel Messi’s 21 — and he has taken the Golden Boot lead with 10 goals to Messi’s 8. What every preview all tournament called "Messi’s record" has, since yesterday, belonged to someone else. But the final gives Messi one last answer. As at 19 July 2026.
Where the race stands
| Player | Nation | Goals | Golden Boot odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | France | 10 | 1.04 |
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | 8 | 13.0 |
| Erling Haaland | Norway | 7 | out (frozen) |
| Jude Bellingham | England | 7 | out (frozen) |
| Harry Kane / Ousmane Dembélé | England / France | 6 | out (frozen) |
The FIFA order is goals → assists → fewer minutes played. With England and France out, every other candidate is frozen. Only Messi can still act — and it’s a big ask: +3 goals in the final to lead outright, or +2 to level at 10 (then FIFA tiebreakers).
Inside: the Golden Ball didn’t move
Here’s the twist the numbers don’t shout: losing the goals record did not move the Golden Ball market (the voted MVP award). Messi is still the favourite (~1.11). Goals aren’t everything — assists, leadership and weight of involvement count, and there the Argentine is still ahead. It could be the final’s finest sub-plot: the man who lost the record but can still walk off as player of the tournament.
Betting from New Zealand
In New Zealand, TAB NZ is the only lawful operator; offshore sites are barred. Check the NZD prices with TAB before backing anything.
Read next
- Today — Spain v Argentina, the final
- Yesterday — England 6-4 France
- Messi’s last World Cup dance and the Golden Ball
Sources: Kalshi (via Yahoo/Covers), FanDuel (via FOX), FIFA, England FA (16–18 July 2026). Decimal, indicative. In NZ, TAB NZ is the only lawful operator; 18+; gambling help at gamblinghelpline.co.nz.
