Loading...
England and Croatia at a World Cup. Again. The two sides have been drawn together so often in recent tournament history that it feels less like coincidence and more like FIFA’s draw machinery has a taste for narrative drama. Their 2018 semi-final in Moscow — where Croatia came from behind to win in extra time — remains one of the most replayed matches in English football broadcasting. Their 2021 Euro opener — where England won 1-0 through Raheem Sterling’s goal — was the reply. At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, they meet for the next instalment, and this time the stakes are raw group-stage survival. Ghana and Panama complete a Group L that is more competitive than it appears at first glance, and for punters who enjoy dissecting familiar rivalries through a new lens, this is a group worth studying closely.
The Four Teams at a Glance
Let me start with a number that might surprise you: England have not won a World Cup knockout match in normal time since 2018. Quarter-final against Sweden — that was it. Every other knockout victory or near-miss since then has gone to extra time or penalties. That statistic matters because it reveals something about England’s DNA under pressure: they grind rather than dominate. The squad entering 2026 is younger and arguably more creative than the Southgate-era team, but the question of whether England can control and close out matches at tournament pace remains unanswered.
The post-Gareth Southgate era — whoever has taken the reins — inherits a squad rich in attacking talent. Jude Bellingham is the centrepiece, a midfielder who combines goals, creativity and physical presence in a way that no other English player has managed since Steven Gerrard. Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, and Cole Palmer provide options across the front line that would be the envy of almost any national team in the world. The defensive picture is less certain. England’s centre-back options have been thinning, and the full-back positions lack the overlap quality that modern tournament football demands. If England exit this World Cup early, it will be because of defensive vulnerability, not attacking impotence.
Croatia arrive at the 2026 World Cup in a state of managed transition. Luka Modrić, if selected, would be 40 years old — an extraordinary achievement that speaks to his physical conditioning and footballing intelligence, but also a reminder that Croatia’s golden era is winding down. The generation of Modrić, Perišić and Brozović carried Croatia to a World Cup final in 2018 and a third-place finish in 2022. The next wave — Joško Gvardiol, Lovro Majer, and a crop of young midfielders — is talented but unproven at the highest stage. Croatia’s challenge in Group L is bridging two eras in real time, and that transition creates uncertainty that the odds should reflect more aggressively than they do.
Ghana return to the World Cup after missing 2022, and their squad offers a blend of Premier League experience and raw athleticism. The Black Stars’ qualification through the CAF pathway was not straightforward — African qualifying is brutally competitive, with away fixtures in extreme heat and hostile atmospheres testing squad depth and mental resilience. Ghana’s key players are scattered across European leagues, and the challenge of forging cohesion in the limited preparation window before a World Cup is one that historically affects African sides more than their European counterparts, who club together in Champions League and Premier League environments year-round.
Panama qualified through CONCACAF and represent a footballing culture that has grown significantly since their debut World Cup appearance in 2018 in Russia. That tournament was a baptism of fire — Panama lost all three group matches and conceded 11 goals — but the experience planted seeds. The current squad is more tactically disciplined, more comfortable in possession, and better prepared for the physical demands of World Cup football. Panama are the clear fourth seed in Group L, but they are not the pushovers their 2018 record suggests.
England vs Croatia: The Sequel
I was in a press box in Moscow for the 2018 semi-final, and the memory that stays with me is not the goals — it is the silence in the England section after Mario Mandžukić’s extra-time winner. That silence was the sound of a nation processing another near-miss, and it is the emotional backdrop against which every England-Croatia fixture is now played. The rivalry is not hostile in the way that England-Germany or England-Argentina are hostile. It is something more nuanced: a mutual acknowledgement that these two teams bring out each other’s highest level, and that the margins between them are measured in inches rather than class.
Tactically, the 2026 version of this fixture hinges on midfield control. If Croatia still have Modrić pulling strings, the central area becomes a battleground between his passing range and Bellingham’s box-to-box dynamism. Croatia’s build-up play is methodical and patient — they are comfortable holding possession for extended periods and waiting for the opposition’s pressing structure to break. England, by contrast, have moved towards a more direct, transition-based approach that seeks to exploit the spaces left by teams that commit to possession. The match dynamic could resemble a tug of war between Croatia’s desire to slow the game down and England’s desire to speed it up.
The betting market will price England as favourites, likely around 1.75-1.90 depending on team news. Croatia’s price will sit around 4.50-5.00, with the draw at 3.40-3.60. I lean towards the draw in this fixture. England-Croatia matches have a history of tight scorelines and tactical caution — both sides respect each other too much to play an open game. The 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines in their recent meetings are not accidents. They are the natural product of two evenly matched teams playing conservative football with high stakes.
One additional angle worth noting: England’s record in opening World Cup group matches is surprisingly inconsistent. They drew 1-1 with the USA in 2010, needed a late winner against Tunisia in 2018, and laboured to beat Iran 6-2 in 2022 only because Iran’s goalkeeper was injured early. If England-Croatia is the opening match for both sides, the nervous energy and tactical conservatism of a first fixture at a major tournament pushes the probability of a draw higher than the raw quality comparison would suggest. Under 2.5 goals in this match is another angle I like — priced around 2.00-2.10, it accounts for the cagey reality of England-Croatia encounters and the mutual respect that suppresses risk-taking from both managers.
Odds and Group Predictions
Group L’s odds board tells a familiar story: England are priced as clear favourites to top the group, with Croatia second, Ghana third, and Panama fourth. The market consensus is roughly 60% England first, 25% Croatia first, 10% Ghana first, 5% Panama first. I agree with the ranking but not the magnitudes.
England to top the group at around 1.70 is a price I would take only as part of a broader accumulator, not as a standalone bet. The return is too thin for a group that contains Croatia, a side with genuine tournament pedigree and the quality to beat England on any given day. England’s recent tournament record — consecutive European Championship finals, deep World Cup runs — creates an expectation premium in the odds that may not be justified if the squad’s defensive issues persist.
Croatia to qualify (top two or best third) at around 1.80 is the bet I favour in Group L. Croatia’s floor in tournament football is remarkably high — they have not been eliminated in the group stage of any major tournament since 2014. Even in transitional moments, Croatia’s tactical intelligence and big-match temperament deliver results. Getting out of the group is what Croatia do, and 1.80 offers a reasonable return for a highly probable outcome.
Ghana are the X-factor. Priced around 5.00 to qualify from the group, Ghana offer a long-shot angle that is not as outlandish as the odds imply. African teams at World Cups have a history of producing one or two results that reshape group standings — Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002, Ghana themselves in 2010 when they reached the quarter-finals. If Ghana beat Panama and take a draw from either England or Croatia, they are in the conversation for a third-place qualifying spot. A NZ$10 punt on Ghana to qualify at 5.00 returns NZ$50 and is backed by historical precedent. Ghana’s Premier League contingent — players accustomed to the pace and physicality of English football — gives them a familiarity with the opposition that many African squads at previous tournaments lacked.
Panama to finish bottom is the most predictable outcome in the group, priced around 1.50, and I see no value in backing or opposing it. Panama are the weakest side by a clear margin, and while they may improve on their 2018 performance, the quality gap between them and the other three teams is significant. Their best chance of causing any disruption is in the Ghana fixture, where a high-energy, direct approach could catch the Black Stars off guard — but even that scenario is a long shot at this level of competition.
Who Gets Through?
The expanded format changes Group L’s dynamics in one crucial way: third place is not elimination. If Ghana can accumulate 3-4 points — a win against Panama and a draw against either England or Croatia — they have a legitimate path to the Round of 32 as one of eight best third-placed teams. That changes how every team in the group approaches the final matchday. England and Croatia, if they have already secured qualification, may rotate their squads for the third match, which opens doors for Ghana to collect a result that would otherwise be out of reach.
My predicted finishing order is England first, Croatia second, Ghana third, Panama fourth. The most likely upset scenario is Croatia topping the group ahead of England, which happens if Croatia beat England in the head-to-head and both teams beat Ghana and Panama. That scenario has roughly a 25% probability in my model and is the market inefficiency I would target: Croatia to finish above England at around 3.00 is a bet that offers 3-to-1 on an outcome that is closer to 1-in-3 than 1-in-4.
The total points for the group winner is another market worth monitoring. In a four-team group where the top two are closely matched and the bottom two are significantly weaker, the group winner typically finishes on 7 points (two wins and a draw). England on exactly 7 points is the kind of specific market that TAB NZ sometimes offers for major tournaments, and it aligns with the likely group dynamic: England beat Ghana and Panama, draw with Croatia, and top the group on goal difference.